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Basic Resources, Heavy Machinery & Materials

When many other analysts had a positive view of India's infrastructure sector in 2011, Hitesh Kuvelkar made a contrarian sell call on the industry.

His bearish call turned out to be right, and it propelled Mr. Kuvelkar to the top of the Asia's Best Analysts survey in two industries—basic resources, and heavy machinery and materials.

Mr. Kuvelkar, who currently works with Mumbai-based First Global Stockbroking Pvt. Ltd., says his best call was an underperform rating on infrastructure and construction company IVRCL Ltd. He kept a sell rating on the company from February to December last year, during which time its stock fell 61%. For the full year, the stock declined nearly 78%.

Mr. Kuvelkar chalks up much of his success to a deep understanding of the Indian infrastructure sector, which he said he has been following for decades. He also noted that part of his call was influenced by an awareness of the industry's high exposure to government interference and policy or regulatory risks.

Other winning picks for Mr. Kuvelkar in 2011 included sell calls on Tata Steel Ltd., Hindustan Construction Co., and Punj Lloyd Ltd., which lost 49%, 65%, and 65%, respectively, during the year.

Mr. Kuvelkar, said part of his strategy in identifying stocks involved "looking at the macro picture as well as the company's fundamentals.

"We also invest a significant amount of time in understanding the company's business model, particularly its pricing power and strategies, as well as the track record of the promoters," he said.

A finance professional who previously worked with ICICI Bank Ltd., IBN -0.16%Mr. Kuvelkar said being an analyst has become much more complex than it was 10 years ago as it now "requires keeping a close watch on various undercurrents that can influence a stock's performance and coming out with timely recommendations."

Predicting a positive outlook for the sector in 2012, Mr. Kuvelkar said he is very optimistic on India because its "macro fundamentals are the best for any major economy."

He also said he is bullish on the auto sector and infrastructure plays like Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. and Reliance Infrastructure Ltd., and state-owned banks.

—Vibhuti Agarwal

 

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